Trends in Aluminum & PVC Raw Materials 2026 | Window & Door Costs Outlook

Key Points:

• Electrolytic aluminum prices recently hit multiyear highs,with LME aluminum surpassing $3,200/ton and SHFE aluminum briefly nearing ¥25,000/ton. This surge stems from constrained supply coupled with new demand growth from electric vehicles, data centers, and other sectors.

• In contrast, domestic PVC prices continued to decline throughout 2025. Calcium carbide-based SG- 5 PVC fell approximately 11% annually, with multiple chlor-alkali enterprises forecasting losses. The industry remains characterized by “high supply, high inventory, and weak demand.”

• For window and door manufacturers, rising aluminum costs coupled with low PVC prices significantly impact gross margins and pricing strategies for different material products,necessitating systematic hedging and structural optimization.

1. Why Does Aluminum Price Remain Elevated?

• Supply-side constraints: Production cuts at European smelters and stricter carbon emission policies have reduced global supply elasticity; China's primary aluminum capacity is capped at 45 million tons under “dual carbon” policies, with2026 viewed as the final year for capacity expansion,leaving limited room for growth.

• Surging new demand: Lightweighting in new energy vehicles,grid investment expansion, energy storage boom, and data center construction drive increased aluminum consumption.This is compounded by the strengthening “aluminum-substitutingcopper” trend, fueling market expectations of tight supply-demand dynamics in the medium to long term.

• Upward revisions in institutional forecasts: Goldman Sachs raised its first-half 2026 LME aluminum price forecast from $2,575/ton to $3,150/ton. Domestic securities firms also broadly anticipate a rise in aluminum price benchmarks,further solidifying bullish market expectations.

2. Why has the PVC industry fallen into a “price trough”?

• Continued Capacity Expansion: China's PVC capacity is expected to increase by approximately 2.2 million tons in 2025, pushing total capacity past 29.93 million tons by year-end—a year-on-year growth of about 7.35%. Concurrent supply from both calcium carbide and ethylene processes has created structural oversupply.

• Post-Real Estate Cycle Weakness: Approximately 60% of PVC powder demand is tied to real estate. Completion pressures over the past two years have significantly weakened demand for rigid products, with only flexible products (e.g., films) maintaining relatively stable operating rates.

• Export growth fails to offset domestic demand shortfall:Domestic PVC exports reachedapproximately 3.51 million tons in the first 11 months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 47%, but provided limited support to overall prices.

3. How should door and window manufacturers navigate this“up-anddown”raw material landscape?

• Product Mix Adjustment: During periods of highprice volatility, moderately increase the proportion of high-value-added, high-margin system doors/windows and project orders to offset cost pressures. Simultaneously leverage low PVC profile costs to enhance the cost-performance advantage of PVC-steel doors/windows.

• Pricing and Contract Strategies: For aluminum alloy products,prioritize a “raw material index linkage + prepayment+phased settlement” approach; For UPVC products, lock in low-cost raw material procurement for a fixed period to expand profit margins.

• Long-Term Hedging and Strategic Partnerships: Establish long-term agreements with leading profile manufacturers,upstream aluminum producers, or PVC manufacturers. When necessary, utilize futures contracts or forward agreements to lock in prices and smooth profit fluctuations.